CoStar and Tourism Economics raised their US hotel RevPAR growth forecast for 2026 to +2.8%, with occupancy projected at 62.8% — up from 62.3% in 2025 — and ADR gaining about 2%, per the firms' June 2026 forecast assumptions. The upgrade cites strong leisure and group demand, World Cup tailwinds, and continued pricing power.
For operators, the revision is an instruction to protect rate through the summer: the firms' successive upgrades through 2026 — RevPAR assumptions raised 2.2 points and ADR 1.0 point from earlier vintages — reflect demand running ahead of what budgets written in the 2025 downturn assumed.
What changed in the forecast
The June revision is the latest in a series: the first 2026 forecast, released at January's ALIS conference, made only minimal adjustments to prior-year assumptions, and subsequent updates through the spring tracked the stronger-than-expected Q1 data, per Lodging magazine and CoStar reporting. The June edition adds an explicit summer factor — the FIFA World Cup, hosted across North America from June 11 to July 19 — which concentrates international arrivals and city-wide demand in eleven US metros. Supply growth assumptions were trimmed, tightening the demand-supply balance the forecast is built on.
Related stories: World Cup weeks lifted July occupancy to 67.6%, with New York the standout market · US hotels closed 2025 with occupancy and RevPAR both down, STR data shows.
The operator math for the peak weeks
The forecast's composition matters more than its headline. ADR, not occupancy, carries the projected growth — meaning revenue managers in World Cup and group-heavy markets should be defending rate floors through the tournament window rather than chasing last-room volume. For properties outside host metros, the World Cup is a muted factor; the more transferable signal is that leisure demand proved resilient enough for the firms to keep revising upward, which supports holding shoulder-season rates rather than discounting into August.
What would falsify the forecast
Two developments would undercut it: a demand shock in the fall group booking season, and a supply response — conversions and openings coming online faster than the trimmed supply assumptions assume. STR/CoStar's July and August monthly releases will show which way the peak season is breaking while there is still time to adjust 2026 pacing and 2027 budget baselines.